# Time Series Analysis and Forecasting | Data-Driven Insights (Updated 2023)

## Introduction

Time Series Data Analysis is a way of studying the characteristics of the response variable with respect to time as the independent variable. To estimate the target variable in the name of predicting or forecasting, use the time variable as the point of reference. A Time-Series represents a series of time-based orders. It would be Years, Months, Weeks, Days, Horus, Minutes, and Seconds. It is an observation from the sequence of discrete time of successive intervals.

The time variable/feature is the independent variable and supports the target variable to predict the results. Time Series Analysis (TSA) is used in different fields for time-based predictions – like Weather Forecasting models, Stock market predictions, Signal processing, Engineering domain – Control Systems, and Communications Systems. Since TSA involves producing the set of information in a particular sequence, this makes it distinct from spatial and other analyses. We could predict the future using AR, MA, ARMA, and ARIMA models.

**Learning Objectives**

- We will discuss in detail TSA Objectives, Assumptions, and Components (stationary and non-stationary).
- We will look at the TSA algorithms.
- Finally, we will look at specific use cases in Python.

This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon.

## Table of Contents

## What Is Time Series Analysis?

**Definition:** If you see, there are many more definitions for TSA. But let’s keep it simple.

A time series is nothing but a sequence of various data points that occurred in a successive order for a given period of time

**Objectives of Time Series Analysis:**

- To understand how time series works and what factors affect a certain variable(s) at different points in time.
- Time series analysis will provide the consequences and insights of the given dataset’s features that change over time.
- Supporting to derive the predicting the future values of the time series variable.
- Assumptions: There is only one assumption in TSA, which is “stationary,” which means that the origin of time does not affect the properties of the process under the statistical factor.

## How to Analyze Time Series?

To perform the time series analysis, we have to follow the following steps:

- Collecting the data and cleaning it
- Preparing Visualization with respect to time vs key feature
- Observing the stationarity of the series
- Developing charts to understand its nature.
- Model building – AR, MA, ARMA and ARIMA
- Extracting insights from prediction

## Significance of Time Series

TSA is the backbone for prediction and forecasting analysis, specific to time-based problem statements.

- Analyzing the historical dataset and its patterns
- Understanding and matching the current situation with patterns derived from the previous stage.
- Understanding the factor or factors influencing certain variable(s) in different periods.

With the help of “Time Series,” we can prepare numerous time-based analyses and results.

**Forecasting:**Predicting any value for the future.**Segmentation:**Grouping similar items together.**Classification:**Classifying a set of items into given classes.**Descriptive analysis:**Analysis of a given dataset to find out what is there in it.**Intervention analysis:**Effect of changing a given variable on the outcome.

## Components of Time Series Analysis

Let’s look at the various components of Time Series Analysis-

**Trend**: In which there is no fixed interval and any divergence within the given dataset is a continuous timeline. The trend would be Negative or Positive or Null Trend**Seasonality**: In which regular or fixed interval shifts within the dataset in a continuous timeline. Would be bell curve or saw tooth**Cyclical**: In which there is no fixed interval, uncertainty in movement and its pattern**Irregularity**: Unexpected situations/events/scenarios and spikes in a short time span.

## What Are the limitations of Time Series Analysis?

Time series has the below-mentioned limitations; we have to take care of those during our data analysis.

- Similar to other models, the missing values are not supported by TSA
- The data points must be linear in their relationship.
- Data transformations are mandatory, so they are a little expensive.
- Models mostly work on Uni-variate data.

## Data Types of Time Series

Let’s discuss the time series’ data types and their influence. While discussing TS data types, there are two major types – stationary and non-stationary.

**Stationary**: A dataset should follow the below thumb rules without having Trend, Seasonality, Cyclical, and Irregularity components of the time series.

- The
**mean**value of them should be completely constant in the data during the analysis. - The
**variance**should be constant with respect to the time-frame **Covariance**measures the relationship between two variables.

**Non- Stationary**: If either the mean-variance or covariance is changing with respect to time, the dataset is called non-stationary.

## Methods to Check Stationarity

During the TSA model preparation workflow, we must assess whether the dataset is stationary or not. This is done using **Statistical Tests. **There are two tests available to test if the dataset is stationary:

- Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test
- Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) Test

#### Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test or Unit Root Test

The ADF test is the most popular statistical test. It is done with the following assumptions:

- Null Hypothesis (H0): Series is non-stationary
- Alternate Hypothesis (HA): Series is stationary
- p-value >0.05 Fail to reject (H0)
- p-value <= 0.05 Accept (H1)

#### Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) Test

These tests are used for testing a NULL Hypothesis (HO) that will perceive the time series as stationary around a deterministic trend against the alternative of a unit root. Since TSA is looking for Stationary Data for its further analysis, we have to ensure that the dataset is stationary.

## Converting Non-Stationary Into Stationary

Let’s discuss quickly how to convert non-stationary to stationary for effective time series modeling. There are three methods available for this conversion – detrending, differencing, and transformation.

#### Detrending

It involves removing the trend effects from the given dataset and showing only the differences in values from the trend. It always allows cyclical patterns to be identified.

#### Differencing

This is a simple transformation of the series into a new time series, which we use to remove the series dependence on time and stabilize the mean of the time series, so trend and seasonality are reduced during this transformation.

Yt= Yt – Yt-1Yt=Value with time

#### Transformation

This includes three different methods they are Power Transform, Square Root, and Log Transfer. The most commonly used one is Log Transfer.

## Moving Average Methodology

The commonly used time series method is the Moving Average. This method is slick with random short-term variations. Relatively associated with the components of time series.

**The Moving Average (MA) (or) Rolling Mean: **The value of MA is calculated by taking average data of the time-series within k periods.

Let’s see the types of moving averages:

- Simple Moving Average (SMA),
- Cumulative Moving Average (CMA)
- Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

#### Simple Moving Average (SMA)

The SMA is the unweighted mean of the previous M or N points. The selection of sliding window data points, depending on the amount of smoothing, is preferred since increasing the value of M or N improves the smoothing at the expense of accuracy.

To understand better, I will use the air temperature dataset.

import pandas as pd from matplotlib import pyplot as plt from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf df_temperature = pd.read_csv('temperature_TSA.csv', encoding='utf-8') df_temperature.head()

df_temperature.info()

# set index for year column df_temperature.set_index('Any', inplace=True) df_temperature.index.name = 'year' # Yearly average air temperature - calculation df_temperature['average_temperature'] = df_temperature.mean(axis=1) # drop unwanted columns and resetting the datafreame df_temperature = df_temperature[['average_temperature']] df_temperature.head()

# SMA over a period of 10 and 20 years df_temperature['SMA_10'] = df_temperature.average_temperature.rolling(10, min_periods=1).mean() df_temperature['SMA_20'] = df_temperature.average_temperature.rolling(20, min_periods=1).mean()

# Grean = Avg Air Temp, RED = 10 yrs, ORANG colors for the line plot colors = ['green', 'red', 'orange'] # Line plot df_temperature.plot(color=colors, linewidth=3, figsize=(12,6)) plt.xticks(fontsize=14) plt.yticks(fontsize=14) plt.legend(labels =['Average air temperature', '10-years SMA', '20-years SMA'], fontsize=14) plt.title('The yearly average air temperature in city', fontsize=20) plt.xlabel('Year', fontsize=16) plt.ylabel('Temperature [°C]', fontsize=16)

#### Cumulative Moving Average (CMA)

The CMA is the unweighted mean of past values till the current time.

# CMA Air temperature df_temperature['CMA'] = df_temperature.average_temperature.expanding().mean()

# green -Avg Air Temp and Orange -CMA colors = ['green', 'orange'] # line plot df_temperature[['average_temperature', 'CMA']].plot(color=colors, linewidth=3, figsize=(12,6)) plt.xticks(fontsize=14) plt.yticks(fontsize=14) plt.legend(labels =['Average Air Temperature', 'CMA'], fontsize=14) plt.title('The yearly average air temperature in city', fontsize=20) plt.xlabel('Year', fontsize=16) plt.ylabel('Temperature [°C]', fontsize=16)

#### Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA is mainly used to identify trends and filter out noise. The weight of elements is decreased gradually over time. This means It gives weight to recent data points, not historical ones. Compared with SMA, the EMA is faster to change and more sensitive.

α –>Smoothing Factor.

- It has a value between 0,1.
- Represents the weighting applied to the very recent period.

Let’s apply the exponential moving averages with a smoothing factor of 0.1 and 0.3 in the given dataset.

# EMA Air Temperature # Let's smoothing factor - 0.1 df_temperature['EMA_0.1'] = df_temperature.average_temperature.ewm(alpha=0.1, adjust=False).mean() # Let's smoothing factor - 0.3 df_temperature['EMA_0.3'] = df_temperature.average_temperature.ewm(alpha=0.3, adjust=False).mean()

# green - Avg Air Temp, red- smoothing factor - 0.1, yellow - smoothing factor - 0.3 colors = ['green', 'red', 'yellow'] df_temperature[['average_temperature', 'EMA_0.1', 'EMA_0.3']].plot(color=colors, linewidth=3, figsize=(12,6), alpha=0.8) plt.xticks(fontsize=14) plt.yticks(fontsize=14) plt.legend(labels=['Average air temperature', 'EMA - alpha=0.1', 'EMA - alpha=0.3'], fontsize=14) plt.title('The yearly average air temperature in city', fontsize=20) plt.xlabel('Year', fontsize=16) plt.ylabel('Temperature [°C]', fontsize=16)

## Time Series Analysis in Data Science and Machine Learning

When dealing with TSA in Data Science and Machine Learning, there are multiple model options are available. In which the Autoregressive–Moving-Average (ARMA) models with [p, d, and q].

- P==> autoregressive lags
- q== moving average lags
- d==> difference in the order

Before we get to know about Arima, first, you should understand the below terms better.

- Auto-Correlation Function (ACF)
- Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF)

#### Auto-Correlation Function (ACF)

ACF is used to indicate how similar a value is within a given time series and the previous value. (OR) It measures the degree of the similarity between a given time series and the lagged version of that time series at the various intervals we observed.

Python Statsmodels library calculates autocorrelation. This is used to identify a set of trends in the given dataset and the influence of former observed values on the currently observed values.

#### Partial Auto-Correlation (PACF)

PACF is similar to Auto-Correlation Function and is a little challenging to understand. It always shows the correlation of the sequence with itself with some number of time units per sequence order in which only the direct effect has been shown, and all other intermediary effects are removed from the given time series.

#### Auto-Correlation and Partial Auto-Correlation

plot_acf(df_temperature) plt.show()

plot_acf(df_temperature, lags=30) plt.show()

**Observation:**The previous temperature influences the current temperature, but the significance of that influence decreases and slightly increases from the above visualization along with the temperature with regular time intervals.

#### Types of Auto-Correlation

**Interpret ACF and PACF plots**

ACF |
PACF |
Perfect ML -Model |

Plot declines gradually | Plot drops instantly | Auto Regressive model. |

Plot drops instantly | Plot declines gradually | Moving Average model |

Plot decline gradually | Plot Decline gradually | ARMA |

Plot drop instantly | Plot drop instantly | You wouldn’t perform any model |

Remember that both ACF and PACF require stationary time series for analysis.

Now, we will learn about the** Auto-Regressive model.**

## What Is an Auto-Regressive Model?

An auto-regressive model is a simple model that predicts future performance based on past performance. It is mainly used for forecasting when there is some correlation between values in a given time series and the values that precede and succeed (back and forth).

An AR model is a Linear Regression model that uses lagged variables as input. The Linear Regression model can be easily built using the scikit-learn library by indicating the input. Statsmodels library is used to provide autoregression model-specific functions where you have to specify an appropriate lag value and train the model. It is provided in the AutoTeg class to get the results using simple steps.

- Creating the model AutoReg()
- Call fit() to train it on our dataset.
- Returns an AutoRegResults object.
- Once fit, make a prediction by calling the predict () function

The equation for the AR model (Let’s compare Y=mX+c)

Yt =C+b1 Yt-1+ b2 Yt-2+……+ bp Yt-p+ Ert

**Key Parameters**

- p=past values
- Yt=Function of different past values
- Ert=errors in time
- C=intercept

Lets’s check whether the given data set or time series is random or not

from matplotlib import pyplot from pandas.plotting import lag_plot lag_plot(df_temperature) pyplot.show()

**Observation:** Yes, it looks random and scattered.

## Implementation of Auto-Regressive Model

#import libraries from matplotlib import pyplot from statsmodels.tsa.ar_model import AutoReg from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error from math import sqrt # load csv as dataset #series = read_csv('daily-min-temperatures.csv', header=0, index_col=0, parse_dates=True, squeeze=True) # split dataset for test and training X = df_temperature.values train, test = X[1:len(X)-7], X[len(X)-7:] # train autoregression model = AutoReg(train, lags=20) model_fit = model.fit() print('Coefficients: %s' % model_fit.params) # Predictions predictions = model_fit.predict(start=len(train), end=len(train)+len(test)-1, dynamic=False) for i in range(len(predictions)): print('predicted=%f, expected=%f' % (predictions[i], test[i])) rmse = sqrt(mean_squared_error(test, predictions)) print('Test RMSE: %.3f' % rmse) # plot results pyplot.plot(test) pyplot.plot(predictions, color='red') pyplot.show()

**Output:**

predicted=15.893972, expected=16.275000 predicted=15.917959, expected=16.600000 predicted=15.812741, expected=16.475000 predicted=15.787555, expected=16.375000 predicted=16.023780, expected=16.283333 predicted=15.940271, expected=16.525000 predicted=15.831538, expected=16.758333 Test RMSE: 0.617

**Observation:** Expected (blue) Against Predicted (red). The forecast looks good on the 4th and the deviation on the 6th day.

## Implementation of Moving Average (Weights – Simple Moving Average)

import numpy as np alpha= 0.3 n = 10 w_sma = np.repeat(1/n, n) colors = ['green', 'yellow'] # weights - exponential moving average alpha=0.3 adjust=False w_ema = [(1-ALPHA)**i if i==N-1 else alpha*(1-alpha)**i for i in range(n)] pd.DataFrame({'w_sma': w_sma, 'w_ema': w_ema}).plot(color=colors, kind='bar', figsize=(8,5)) plt.xticks([]) plt.yticks(fontsize=10) plt.legend(labels=['Simple moving average', 'Exponential moving average (α=0.3)'], fontsize=10) # title and labels plt.title('Moving Average Weights', fontsize=10) plt.ylabel('Weights', fontsize=10)

## Understanding ARMA and ARIMA

**ARMA** is a combination of the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average models for forecasting. This model provides a weakly stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the Auto-Regressive and the second for the Moving Average.

ARMA is best for predicting stationary series. **ARIMA** was thus developed to support both stationary as well as non-stationary series.

- AR ==> Uses past values to predict the future.
- MA ==> Uses past error terms in the given series to predict the future.
- I==> Uses the differencing of observation and makes the stationary data.

AR+I+MA= ARIMA

- p==> log order => No of lag observations.
- d==> degree of differencing => No of times that the raw observations are differenced.
- q==>order of moving average => the size of the moving average window

#### Implementation Steps for ARIMA

**Step 1:** Plot a time series format

**Step 2:** Difference to make stationary on mean by removing the trend

**Step 3:** Make stationary by applying log transform.

**Step 4:** Difference log transform to make as stationary on both statistic mean and variance

**Step 5:** Plot ACF & PACF, and identify the potential AR and MA model

**Step 6:** Discovery of best fit ARIMA model

**Step 7:** Forecast/Predict the value using the best fit ARIMA model

**Step 8:** Plot ACF & PACF for residuals of the ARIMA model, and ensure no more information is left.

#### Implementation of ARIMA in Python

We have already discussed steps 1-5 which will remain the same; let’s focus on the rest here.

from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARIMA model = ARIMA(df_temperature, order=(0, 1, 1)) results_ARIMA = model.fit()

results_ARIMA.summary()

results_ARIMA.forecast(3)[0]

Output:

array([16.47648941, 16.48621826, 16.49594711])

results_ARIMA.plot_predict(start=200) plt.show()

## Process Flow (Re-Gap)

In recent years, the use of Deep Learning for Time Series Analysis and Forecasting has increased to resolve problem statements that couldn’t be handled using Machine Learning techniques. Let’s discuss this briefly.

** Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) **is the most traditional and accepted architecture fitment for Time-Series forecasting-based problems.

RNN is organized into successive layers and divided into

- Input
- Hidden
- Output

Each layer has equal weight, and every neuron has to be assigned to fixed time steps. Do remember that every one of them is fully connected with a hidden layer (Input and Output) with the same time steps, and the hidden layers are forwarded and time-dependent in direction.

#### Components of RNN

- Input: The function vector of x(t) is the input at time step t.
- Hidden:
- The function vector h(t) is the hidden state at time t,
- This is a kind of memory of the established network;
- This has been calculated based on the current input x(t) and the previous-time step’s hidden-state h(t-1):

- Output: The function vector y(t) is the output at time step t.
- Weights : Weights: In the RNNs, the input vector connected to the hidden layer neurons at time t is by a weight matrix of
**U**(Please refer to the above picture),

Internally weight matrix **W **is formed by the hidden layer neurons of time t-1 and t+1. Following this, the hidden layer with to the output vector y(t) of time t by a **V **(weight matrix); all the weight matrices U, W, and V are constant for each time step.

#### Advantages & Disadvantages of RNN

Advantages |
Disadvantages |

It has the special feature that it remembers every piece of information, so RNN is much useful for time series prediction. | The big challenge is during the training period. |

Perfect for creating complex patterns from the input time series dataset. | Expensive computation cost |

Fast in prediction/forecasting | |

Not affected by missing values, so the cleansing process can be limited |

## Conclusion

A time series is constructed by data that is measured over time at evenly spaced intervals. I hope this comprehensive guide has helped you all understand the time series, its flow, and how it works. Although the TSA is widely used to handle data science problems, it has certain limitations, such as not supporting missing values. Note that the data points must be linear in their relationship for Time Series Analysis to be done.

**Key Takeaways**

- Time series is a sequence of various data points that occurred in a successive order for a given period of time.
- Trend, Seasonality, Cyclical, and Irregularity are components of TSA.

## Frequently Asked Questions

#### Q1 .What are the four main components of a time series?

A. The four main components of time series are Trend, Seasonality, Cyclical, and Irregularity.

#### Q2. How do you do time series analysis step by step?

A. Here are the steps to analyze time series:

- Collect the data and clean it.
- Prepare visualization with respect to time vs. key feature.
- Observe the stationarity of the series.
- Develop charts to understand its nature.
- Build the model – AR, MA, ARMA, and ARIMA.
- Extract insights from prediction.

#### Q3. What are the 3 fundamental steps to model a time series?

A. The three fundamental steps to model a time series are :

- Building a model for time series.
- Validating the model
- Using the model to forecast future values / impute missing values.

## 3 thoughts on "Time Series Analysis and Forecasting | Data-Driven Insights (Updated 2023)"

## Ved says: September 23, 2022 at 7:58 pm

The article is good, however you should provide the source dataset i.e. "temperature_TSA.csv" so that one can replicate the codes. without this its difficult to understand just by reading.## Aravindh says: January 12, 2023 at 12:42 pm

yes. we need that sample dataset.## asa says: January 12, 2023 at 12:44 pm

yes. we need that sample dataset.