tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post798692989163080817..comments2018-06-02T14:19:34.554-04:00Comments on Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Playoff Probabilities Week 7Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-57461715379833595452011-10-26T01:06:18.500-04:002011-10-26T01:06:18.500-04:00After some more thought, I think its now possible ...After some more thought, I think its now possible to compute exact division winner probabilities in a reasonable amount of time.<br /><br />The basic idea is to compute each division separately. Take for example, the AFC East. Between the Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, and Jets, there are only 32 games in their remaining schedule (assuming I counted correctly...).<br /><br />With only about 4 billion permutations (of game winners/losers), if the per-permutation computation is reasonably cheap, it should be doable to compute exact division winner probabilities in a few seconds to few minutes per division. I think I can compute the permutation probability with 1 multiplication by using gray coding of the permutation [*], so probably everything else (housekeeping and tests to determine the division winner of the permutation) becomes the bottleneck.<br /><br />[*] So each permutation differs from the previous by exactly one game outcome, so divide the previous joint probability by the pre-flipped probability then multiply by the post-flipped, but this divide and mulitply can be precomputed into a single multiplied factor.Sam's Hideouthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17861031623526621055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-10385043003221400392011-10-21T14:14:23.208-04:002011-10-21T14:14:23.208-04:00Love the idea of the "High Leverage Game of t...Love the idea of the "High Leverage Game of the Week". Hope it will be a weekly feature.Michael Beuoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03960600491528993233noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-11365772834136625332011-10-21T11:51:21.870-04:002011-10-21T11:51:21.870-04:00Andrew Luck Sweepstakes:
Indy 37%
Mia 21%
Ari 9%
...Andrew Luck Sweepstakes:<br /><br />Indy 37%<br />Mia 21%<br />Ari 9%<br />StL 8%<br />Min 7%<br />Car 5%<br />Jac 5%Jonathannoreply@blogger.com